Way to data scientist

— Inscription: every commercial war is a case textbook, as a witness, record the story.

1. This war first won the positive recognition of supervision. After anti-monopoly, all major decisions of enterprises are now being monitored, indicating that the policy is to support the e-commerce war. On the whole, the platform pays money, users benefit, merchants benefit and activate the whole economy.
2. This war is a battle that Ali has to face, because the War of the US group has already burned to Ali’s hinterland, because the US group is not only a takeaway business, but also a rapidly rising near-field e-commerce. AI’s investment is a battle for the future, but near-field e-commerce is a battle for survival.
3. The essence of the competitiveness of near-field e-commerce this year lies in the fact that online costs are getting higher and higher. Now the sluggish offline retail industry has led to a decline in rents, which has brought about the overall cost advantage. Now it is basically moving towards a situation of online and online prices. Fundamental changes in the cost structure are reshaping the competitive landscape of the entire e-commerce industry. Under this pattern, Meituan’s near-field e-commerce has only grown explosively in the last two years. This is the underlying logic behind it.
4. Jingdong’s performance this time was quite excellent, and the commercial response was quite rapid. Meituan’s near-field category had an impact on Jingdong’s category first, because Jingdong’s core lies in the category with high speed requirements for 3C digital category, while Meituan’s advantage just solved this problem at a faster speed. Faced with this direct threat, JD must respond.
5. Jingdong may be a bit of a pity this time. It got up early and got up late. The result may not be very good.
6. I think Taobao’s overall strategic integration this time is right. It should also have been verified by the previous data. According to the report of First Finance and Economics, Taobao’s flash purchase achieved a daily order breakthrough of 60 million in only two months. Before Taobao, were you hungry? Fliggy, the brand mind on the client side was too scattered. This time through effective integration, it focused on the mind of one user. It is estimated that Taobao’s recent activity rate and other indicators are good, money that used to be used for spending increases may now be more efficient when it is thrown at subsidies.
7. In this war, Duoduo has also joined, but Duoduo feels that there are not many resources that can be integrated in the near-field e-commerce, and he may not be able to drink any soup.
8. The whole China will be under short-term pressure. Ali, Jingdong, Meituan and Pinduoduo will all be under short-term pressure in their share prices. Ali’s take-out business will lose 41 billion yuan in the next 12 months, Jingdong will lose 26 billion yuan, and Meituan’s EBIT profit will drop 25 billion yuan. All major platforms are paying a huge price for the real-time retail market. In the long run, Ali and Meituan have their own advantages and disadvantages, ali needs to effectively convert users brought by subsidies into Taobao LTV users. The core lies in this conversion efficiency. Meituan’s advantage lies in the integration efficiency of the distribution network and the consistency of the consumer side. The winner or loser of the whole competition lies in Ali’s use of this conversion efficiency to counter the current weakness in the efficiency of the whole distribution network.